As a follow-up to yesterday's #FederalReserve press conference, here are some thoughts on why Chair Powell's surprisingly dovish tone and context may end up being appropriate...though not for the reasons he put forward.
www.ft.com/content/aa8c68f7-9dad-465f-ab92-c64c38337a84
#economy @FT #markets #inflation
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Mohamed A. El-Erian
elerianm
Asked about the level of inflation, Federal Reserve Chair Powell responds "3% cannot be in a sentence with satisfactory."
What if 3% turns out to be closer to the equilibrium inflation rate for a US economy (i) going through major structural changes, several of which are…
Instead of focusing on the ISM Services Index plunging into #recession territory, with pronounced weakness in employment, investors focused on the surging prices paid component. They missed the point that #recession will prevent the #Fed from raising rates to fight #inflation.