The median FOMC projection is for 2.8% core PCE inflation in 2024 (Q4/Q4). Will require inflation to fall from the 3.2% annual rate over the last 6 months to a 2.4% annual rate (monthly prints of 0.20%). Reasonable to expect slowing but I would still be a touch nervous. pic.twitter.com/1xvKPM5OFo

One reason to be cautious about a single month of data--even a great month like May--is that even six months of data can be volatile. In Nov & Dec 2023 6-month annualized core PCE inflation was 1.9%. By Feb 2024 it was 3.0% and it now at 3.2%. Why the Fed wants to see more.

Still a significant gap between year/year change in core goods (blue) and core services (orange) portions of CPI #inflation pic.twitter.com/wPNPdNFksl

🏛️ The Fed's decision to maintain rates unchanged once more—what does it signify for Dalal Street? #FederalReserve #InterestRates #MarketImpact 📈 www.zeebiz.com/market-news/news-fed-policy-june-2024-benchmark-interest-rate-unchanged-suggest-1-rate-cut-this-year-mildly-positive-for-d-street-295927