One reason to be cautious about a single month of data--even a great month like May--is that even six months of data can be volatile. In Nov & Dec 2023 6-month annualized core PCE inflation was 1.9%. By Feb 2024 it was 3.0% and it now at 3.2%. Why the Fed wants to see more.

“The U.S. is experiencing the best economic and employment situation in over 50 years and stocks are at all-time highs.” 🇺🇸 - Garzarelli Capital pic.twitter.com/qrrUrvW3nX

JPMORGAN: “.. Our current expectation is for core goods prices inflation to average roughly flat over the near term, but these trends suggest a risk it could turn slightly negative.” 👀 #DoveBait 🕊️ pic.twitter.com/vPVaBUQnRh

Core PPI (orange) has seen stronger disinflation relative to core CPI (blue), but latter continues to catch down for now pic.twitter.com/PBmd5Ir7fN