According to the just-released data, March headline and core PCE #inflation are slightly higher than the consensus forecasts (2.7 vs. 2.6 and 2.8 vs 2.7). Having said that, the miss is smaller than yesterday, and the monthly readings are in line. Meanwhile, personal spending rose…

From the @wsj article, “Why Is the Federal Reserve Always Surprised by Inflation? The central bank owes the public an explanation—and a serious effort to correct its flawed model.” #economy #markets #centralbanks #econtwitter #federalreserve pic.twitter.com/9pXVdePJAr

The PCE-based Ecumenical underlying inflation measure was 3.0% in March, down 0.1pp from February. This is the median of 24 different measures: 8 different bases over 3, 6 and 12 months. FWIW, my own judgment is underlying inflation is 2.5 to 3.0%, probably top of that range. pic.twitter.com/DgIeSK2Zm1

Core PCE inflation over the last 3 months was a 4.4% annual rate. That is higher than any time from Nov 1990 to Mar 2021. Yes, there were special factors, seasonal issues, etc. But there were also special factors & seasonal issues at various times in those previous 30 years.