The Weekly Look Ahead for the Global #Economy and #Markets It was already a tricky situation for the large number of #FederalReserve officials scheduled to speak this week, including Chair Powell. This has been made more so by the latest escalation in Iran-Israel tensions. What…

If the Fed cuts rates by Sep or possibly even this yr, it's much more likely because they get bad news about the employment side of their mandate than because they get reassuring news about the inflation side. The reason: even if inflation falls will take time to be convincing.

Three scenarios for the Fed: Solid growth with declining inflation (the golden path) Solid growth with disinflation petering out closer to 3% than 2% Contracting growth with high/rising inflation (the bad place) www.cnbc.com/video/2024/04/12/charting-the-feds-rate-path.html

ONE ARGUMENT FOR A HIGHER INFLATION TARGET: In today's @markets newsletter, I wrote about @elerianm's recent column on the case for a more flexible inflation target, and how it dovetails with our two recent episodes with @NNNIncome and @BrianJanous pic.twitter.com/VZi2htTkYD