The @wsj is right on this: “Even if the Fed cuts, the days of ultralow rates are over.” Also, we are yet to deal fully with the consequences of the over-indebtedness and resource misallocations encouraged by the protracted period of ultra-loose monetary policy. #economy… pic.twitter.com/9USXW1q8om

“As the US reported the latest in a string of poor #inflation figures, markets reined in their forecasts for rate cuts by the European Central Bank and the Bank of England, as well as by the Fed itself.” As captured by this @FT quote, the markets’ repricing of central bank cuts… pic.twitter.com/GNDAxFYRKT

The optimistic perspective on inflation is that latest numbers are noise so better off smoothing over 6 or 12 months. The pessimistic perspective on inflation is that it is turning back up. pic.twitter.com/xyMis7Z3ue

Core PCE inflation over the last 3 months was a 4.4% annual rate. That is higher than any time from Nov 1990 to Mar 2021. Yes, there were special factors, seasonal issues, etc. But there were also special factors & seasonal issues at various times in those previous 30 years.