The FOMC made the wise move by declining to move again in June--and signaling only one more rate cut this year. Would be nice if the data pleasantly surprises and they can do more but we've had basically two good inflation months in the last year so more data needed.

Time for #Fed policy recalibration... with dis-#inflation progressing & labor market conditions softening. June or July cut would have been optimal, but unfortunately too much emphasis on 1st rate cut in the absence of a forward-looking framework, leading to policy hesitancy pic.twitter.com/KqhUKIh4ql

On the surface, the #FederalReserve's SEP has been subjected to a hawkish tilt as reflected in The higher #inflation forecasts for 2024 and 2025; The move of the median cuts for 2024 from 3 to 1; 4, up from 1 FOMC member, expecting no cuts this year; and The slight move…

Per @FerroTV, @lisaabramowicz1, and @tomkeene, #markets drove yields lower in each of the last 5 #FederalReserve press conferences. Can you imagine this happening today, given that the front end has already moved down some 15 bps in response to this morning's #inflation data?