The median FOMC projection is for 2.8% core PCE inflation in 2024 (Q4/Q4). Will require inflation to fall from the 3.2% annual rate over the last 6 months to a 2.4% annual rate (monthly prints of 0.20%). Reasonable to expect slowing but I would still be a touch nervous. pic.twitter.com/1xvKPM5OFo

The FOMC made the wise move by declining to move again in June--and signaling only one more rate cut this year. Would be nice if the data pleasantly surprises and they can do more but we've had basically two good inflation months in the last year so more data needed.

Tomorrow's News Today... BREAKING: THE FED HOLDS INTEREST RATES AT 5.25-5.50%, CITING FIRMER PRICE PRESSURES AND LOWER CONFIDENCE THAT INFLATION WILL MOVE DOWN TO THEIR 2% TARGET THIS YEAR.

On the surface, the #FederalReserve's SEP has been subjected to a hawkish tilt as reflected in The higher #inflation forecasts for 2024 and 2025; The move of the median cuts for 2024 from 3 to 1; 4, up from 1 FOMC member, expecting no cuts this year; and The slight move…