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Mohamed A. El-Erian
elerianm
Among the interesting outcomes of today's Federal Reserve policy meeting, which left interest rates unchanged, was a discernible stagflationary flavor in the 2025 projections:
Growth was downgraded by 0.3 percentage points to 1.4%, while core inflation was raised by the same
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Nick Timiraos
NickTimiraos
If prices shoot up this summer, the Fed will likely stay on the sidelines for longer. Labor would have to convincingly sputter to prompt cuts.
But if an anticipated tariff-driven price punch turns out to be a damp squib, earlier cuts are possible
www.wsj.com/economy/central-banking/the-fed-waits-out-the-tariff-economy-fb1b794a?st=KtQXzb&reflink=desktopwebshare_permalink
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Nick Timiraos
NickTimiraos
Powell sums up why the Fed both expects prices to rise in the near term but has such difficulty forecasting the magnitude:
Someone has to pay the tariff, but it's hard to know who.
"There's the manufacturer, the exporter, the importer and the retailer and the consumer. And each
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Holger Zschaepitz
Schuldensuehner
Fed holds rates again in 4.25-4.5% target range, still sees 2 cuts by year end. Lowers 2025 GDP forecast to 1.4% from 1.7% prev, lifts inflation to 3.1% from 2.8% forecast in March. pic.x.com/pRli4TVmR6
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