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Eurasia Group
EurasiaGroup
Closing the Strait of Hormuz is Iran's last big card to play, says our expert @gbrew24. But Tehran is unlikely to do so, as it would hurt Iran economically and immediately trigger a response from the US and the GCC. www.rferl.org/a/iran-israel-war-hormuz-npt-nuclear-weapon/33444357.html
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Carl Bildt
carlbildt
There were no new indications that Iran 🇮🇷 had decided to get nuclear weapons in spite of 🇮🇱 assertions to the contrary. But Netanyahu 🇮🇱 had wanted to attack 🇮🇷 since years back, and now used the Trump 🇺🇸 opportunity. www.cnn.com/2025/06/17/politics/israel-iran-nuclear-bomb-us-intelligence-years-away
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Pavel Podvig
russianforces
Not many people will mourn Iran's nuclear program (or Iran's military for that matter). But unless it's dismantled or constrained lawfully (difficult but not impossible) this will come back to bite us. Breaking rules seems easy, but once you do they stay broken.
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Shashank Joshi
shashj
“US intelligence assessments had reached a different conclusion—not only was Iran not actively pursuing a nuclear weapon, it was also up to three years away from being able to produce and deliver one…according to four people familiar with the assessment” www.cnn.com/2025/06/17/politics/israel-iran-nuclear-bomb-us-intelligence-years-away
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