This morning’s ECI and housing price inflation figures confirm what I have suspected and feared. Inflation is not securely trending to target levels. Note that the ECI has accelerated from previous quarterly, semi-annual and annual levels. I suspect it has been understating…

Stagflation, you say? NY Fed's estimate of underlying inflation is basically flat at 2.6 percent 1/ pic.twitter.com/6a4t6UhSL1

The Prices Paid component of ISM Manufacturing has moved up to its highest level since June 2022, potentially signaling higher inflation for longer. This was a leading indicator of the inflationary spike in 2021-22 and the cooling of inflation in 2022-23. pic.twitter.com/HuWXBQckHc

Tomorrow's news today... BREAKING: THE FED HOLDS INTEREST RATES AT 5.25-5.50%, CITING FIRMER PRICE PRESSURES AND LOWER CONFIDENCE THAT INFLATION WILL MOVE DOWN TO THEIR 2% TARGET THIS YEAR.