The team is penciling in 25-basis-point-cuts in September, October, and December, as well as cuts of the same magnitude in March and June 2026. “If there is any insurance motive for cutting, it would be most natural to cut at consecutive meetings,” Mericle writes of rate cuts in 2025. “We do not expect a cut in July.”

Why the Fed May Cut Rates Earlier Than Expected
Goldman Sachs