Fed's inflation gauge in May

A combination of weaker activity and stubborn inflation is the message from today's US data so far. Monthly growth for both personal income and spending was negative in May, and below the consensus forecasts. Core inflation was slightly above the consensus forecasts for both the

The Cleveland Fed's calculation of the median PCE inflation rate for May was +0.22%, which annualizes to 2.6%. This was the lowest since July 2024. The 12-month reading was 3%, little changed from recent months. pic.x.com/xymIsvPuS9

Core PCE inflation was +0.18% in May. 12-month core prices rose 2.7% from 2.6% in April (and April was revised up from an initially reported 2.5%). Headline prices rose 0.14% in May. The 12-month reading ticked up to 2.3% (from 2.2% in April, revised up from 2.1%) pic.x.com/viQeYrI5Rl

Inflation came in fairly mild in May. PCE inflation ticked up only 0.1% in May to an annual rate of 2.3% (up from 2.2% in April). We're all waiting for more signs of tariffs raising prices, but it's been mild so far. The bigger surprise? Personal incomes and consumption FELL pic.x.com/0yQREzojzt