This morning’s ECI and housing price inflation figures confirm what I have suspected and feared. Inflation is not securely trending to target levels. Note that the ECI has accelerated from previous quarterly, semi-annual and annual levels. I suspect it has been understating…

Asked about the level of inflation, Federal Reserve Chair Powell responds "3% cannot be in a sentence with satisfactory." What if 3% turns out to be closer to the equilibrium inflation rate for a US economy (i) going through major structural changes, several of which are…

Based on the statement, how hawkish was the much anticipated "hawkish pivot" by the Federal Reserve today? More hawkish than what the Fed signaled previously; Less hawkish than where the markets had gotten to on the basis of recent inflation data; and I worry that, given…

The FOMC meeting was a foregone conclusion nonevent. That is likely to be true of the next several meetings. Not changing rates partly reflects good news--the real economy is very strong and does not need cuts. And partly bad news--setbacks in progress on inflation.