Perhaps surprising: consumer prices since 2015 have grown at a level consistent with the RBA's 2-3% target. That's because inflation undershot the target from 2015 to 2021. pic.twitter.com/Yc5wb1RpIF

Fun fact: When RBA last hiked rates in November 2023 to 4.35%, it was forecasting inflation to be 3.9% by June Q 2024; 3.3% by Dec Q 2024. In March Q, it has cascaded to 3.6%: likely to be around that for June Q & sub 3% in Dec Q with monetary policy where it is. Just saying

The RBA forecast profile in Feb assumed 50bps of rate cuts by Dec 24 and 100 by Dec 25. Market pricing. As it updates it’s forecasts it will be putting in 100bps higher interest rates so will no doubt revise inflation lower in 2025 and 2026

Australian consumer price inflation (CPI) slowed by less than expected in the first quarter, while the progress in the core inflation stumbled, reinforcing market bets that an interest rate cut could be a long way out. #ausecon #auspol @CommSec