This morning’s ECI and housing price inflation figures confirm what I have suspected and feared. Inflation is not securely trending to target levels. Note that the ECI has accelerated from previous quarterly, semi-annual and annual levels. I suspect it has been understating…

The just-released macro data for the #Eurozone include: Headline inflation in line with the consensus forecast of 2.4%; Slightly hotter-than-expected core #inflation at 2.7%; and Slightly stronger #growth. Together, they should not change policy expectations for the @ECB.

“As the US reported the latest in a string of poor #inflation figures, markets reined in their forecasts for rate cuts by the European Central Bank and the Bank of England, as well as by the Fed itself.” As captured by this @FT quote, the markets’ repricing of central bank cuts… pic.twitter.com/GNDAxFYRKT

US & euro area inflation are now similar--despite the fact that the U.S. economy has been growing much more strongly than the euro area. The U.S. was much higher, then it was Europe's turn, now both are down & roughly convergent (euro area a little higher, likely not for long). pic.twitter.com/ikvAZaIOey