News about inflation

The PCE-based Ecumenical underlying inflation measure was 3.0% in March, down 0.1pp from February. This is the median of 24 different measures: 8 different bases over 3, 6 and 12 months. FWIW, my own judgment is underlying inflation is 2.5 to 3.0%, probably top of that range. pic.twitter.com/DgIeSK2Zm1

Core PCE inflation over the last 3 months was a 4.4% annual rate. That is higher than any time from Nov 1990 to Mar 2021. Yes, there were special factors, seasonal issues, etc. But there were also special factors & seasonal issues at various times in those previous 30 years.

Bonds rally as Fed’s preferred #inflation metric not as bad as feared. PCE deflator rose to 2.7% in March from 2.5% in Feb vs 2.6% expected. Core PCE, the Fed's preferred measure of underlying price pressures, remained at 2.8%, compared w/an anticipated fall to 2.7%. First full… pic.twitter.com/LxaZTkntcL

Today’s Personal Income report shows that headline PCE price index rose 0.3% in March, as expected. The core PCE price index—which excludes volatile food and energy components—also rose by 0.3%, also at expectations. 1/ pic.twitter.com/Enaz0VwGBu